Week 8 play of the week
32.6UPS points · Josh Martel
Week 8 recap
UPS CENTER
At the desk: Stuart, Rich & Boomer · Kenny Mayne in the Coffee Shop
Bear Dunn led Week 8 with 307.6. Automated draft from the league’s own data, awaiting the editor.
1 Opening desk
Stuart
Week 8 at the desk, Rich. Bear Dunn put up 307.6, the best score of the week, and beat all eleven teams in all-play. The closest game was Josh Martel over Ryan Bousquet, by 3.7.
Rich
Bear Dunn, Eric Martel, Josh Martel and Shawn Blake won every game. Eric Mannila, Keith Creelman, Brian Cross and Derrick Whitman did not win one.
Stuart
The biggest margin of the week was Bear Dunn over Eric Mannila, by 89.5. Boomer, take it away.
2 Boomer’s Three-Minute Rundown
Boomer
Thanks, Stu! Joe Burrow, QB for Bear Dunn: 54.4 UPS points. 38-of-48 for 462, 5 TD, 3 INT; 3 carries for 10 and 1 TD. Bear Dunn went 2–0 this week.
Boomer
Tee Higgins, WR for Bear Dunn: 42.3 UPS points. Bear Dunn went 2–0 this week.
Boomer
Tyler Allgeier, RB for Eric Mannila: 38.5 UPS points. Eric Mannila went 0–2 this week.
Boomer
Kirk Cousins, QB for Eric Mannila: 36.3 UPS points. Eric Mannila went 0–2 this week.
Boomer
Ja'Marr Chase, WR for Eric Martel: 35.5 UPS points. 11 catches on 16 targets for 141 and 1 TD; 1 tackles. Eric Martel went 2–0 this week.
Boomer
Stu, Rich, that is your division desk. I am out.
3 Division desk
Chris Klingenberg
Hawks
Final
229.2 : 218.1
margin 11.1
Eric Mannila
Cleon Ca$h
Bear Dunn swept; Chris Klingenberg over Eric Mannila by 11.1.
Stuart
Bear Dunn scored 307.6 and went 2–0: beat Eric Mannila by 89.5, Chris Klingenberg by 78.4.
Rich
Chris Klingenberg scored 229.2 and went 1–1: beat Eric Mannila by 11.1; lost to Bear Dunn by 78.4.
Stuart
Eric Mannila scored 218.1 and went 0–2: lost to Bear Dunn by 89.5, Chris Klingenberg by 11.1. His best available lineup, 244.5, would have won a game he lost.
Brian Cutting
Pure Greatness
Final
203.9 : 181.8
margin 22.1
Brian Cross
The Long Haulers
Eric Martel swept; Brian Cutting over Brian Cross by 22.1.
Stuart
Eric Martel scored 243.5 and went 2–0: beat Brian Cross by 61.7, Brian Cutting by 39.6.
Rich
Brian Cutting scored 203.9 and went 1–1: beat Brian Cross by 22.1; lost to Eric Martel by 39.6.
Stuart
Brian Cross scored 181.8 and went 0–2: lost to Eric Martel by 61.7, Brian Cutting by 22.1. His best available lineup, 211.0, would have won a game he lost.
Matt Gerardi
Gride
Final
186.6 : 166.2
margin 20.4
Derrick Whitman
CBP
Shawn Blake swept; Matt Gerardi over Derrick Whitman by 20.4.
Stuart
Shawn Blake scored 210.7 and went 2–0: beat Derrick Whitman by 44.5, Matt Gerardi by 24.1.
Rich
Matt Gerardi scored 186.6 and went 1–1: beat Derrick Whitman by 20.4; lost to Shawn Blake by 24.1. His best available lineup, 215.7, would have won a game he lost.
Stuart
Derrick Whitman scored 166.2 and went 0–2: lost to Shawn Blake by 44.5, Matt Gerardi by 20.4. His best available lineup, 188.5, would have won a game he lost.
Josh Martel
Sex Manther
Final
218.0 : 214.3
margin 3.7
Ryan Bousquet
L.A. Looks
Josh Martel swept, and the closest of it was Ryan Bousquet by 3.7.
Stuart
Josh Martel scored 218.0 and went 2–0: beat Keith Creelman by 34.0, Ryan Bousquet by 3.7.
Rich
Ryan Bousquet scored 214.3 and went 1–1: beat Keith Creelman by 30.3; lost to Josh Martel by 3.7. His best available lineup, 235.2, would have won a game he lost.
Stuart
Keith Creelman scored 184.0 and went 0–2: lost to Josh Martel by 34.0, Ryan Bousquet by 30.3. His best available lineup, 221.2, would have won a game he lost.
4 Plays of the Week — with player headshots
Week 8 play of the week
35.5UPS points · Eric Martel
Ja'Marr Chase
11 catches on 16 targets for 141 and 1 TD; 1 tackles
EDITOR REVIEW — No verified highlight link for Ja'Marr Chase (no NFL.com page or NFL-channel upload could be confirmed); add one or leave it out.
Week 8 play of the week
54.4UPS points · Bear Dunn
Week 8 play of the week
35.0UPS points · Matt Gerardi
Patrick Mahomes
30-of-41 for 321, 3 TD; 2 carries for 6
EDITOR REVIEW — No verified highlight link for Patrick Mahomes (no NFL.com page or NFL-channel upload could be confirmed); add one or leave it out.
5 Above and below expectations — projection, opportunity and actual points
Stuart
The biggest bargain: Joe Burrow for Bear Dunn, projected 15.6, scored 54.4.
Rich
The biggest bust: Lamar Jackson for Brian Cutting, projected 16.4, scored 0.0.
Offense busts Projected → scored
- Lamar Jackson (QB, Brian Cutting)1 passes, 15 air yards · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET16.4 → 0.0-16.4
- Zay Flowers (WR, Brian Cutting)5 targets, 43 air yards · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET16.1 → 0.0-16.1
- Michael Penix Jr. (QB, Eric Martel)24 passes, 209 air yards, 5 carries · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET14.6 → -0.9-15.5
Jacoby Brissett (QB, Keith Creelman)23 passes, 266 air yards, 3 carries · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET15.5 → 1.1-14.4- Parker Washington (WR, Keith Creelman)2 targets, 19 air yards, 1 carry · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET18.4 → 4.0-14.4
Offense bargains Projected → scored
- Joe Burrow (QB, Bear Dunn)48 passes, 453 air yards, 3 carries · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET15.6 → 54.4+38.8
- Tyler Allgeier (RB, Eric Mannila)11 carries, 5 targets · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET4.7 → 38.5+33.8
- Harold Fannin (TE, Josh Martel)12 targets, 84 air yards · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET9.3 → 32.6+23.3
- Tee Higgins (WR, Bear Dunn)11 targets, 121 air yards · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET19.3 → 42.3+23.0
Bhayshul Tuten (RB, Shawn Blake)16 carries, 2 targets · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET9.4 → 31.5+22.1
Defense busts Projected → scored
- Tykee Smith (DB, Derrick Whitman)MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET8.3 → 2.1-6.2
- Keisean Nixon (DB, Brian Cutting)MFL proj. Thu 7:47 PM ET · kickoff Thu 8:15 PM ET8.7 → 2.6-6.1
- Jack Campbell (LB, Eric Martel)MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET7.4 → 1.5-5.9
- Josiah Trotter (LB, Brian Cutting)MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET9.0 → 4.0-5.0
- Nik Bonitto (DL, Brian Cutting)MFL proj. Sun 2:20 PM ET · kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET6.4 → 2.0-4.4
Defense bargains Projected → scored
- Quinnen Williams (DL, Shawn Blake)MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET4.3 → 17.5+13.2
- Alex Anzalone (LB, Chris Klingenberg)MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET5.6 → 16.5+10.9
- CJ Allen (LB, Chris Klingenberg)MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET1.4 → 11.5+10.1
- Jordan Battle (DB, Brian Cross)MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET7.6 → 17.1+9.5
- George Karlaftis (DL, Chris Klingenberg)MFL proj. Sun 2:20 PM ET · kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET5.1 → 14.5+9.4
Started players only. Projection source: each player’s last MFL projection saved before his own kickoff, captured Thu Oct 29, 7:47 PM ET, Sun Nov 1, 12:03 PM ET, Sun Nov 1, 2:20 PM ET; every row shows its capture time and the player’s own kickoff, and every capture came first. 192 offensive and defensive starters graded; 0 not graded for want of a pregame capture. Largest gaps among graded starters, not every starter.
6 League landscape — standings after week 8
Stuart
Bear Dunn leads the field at 78–10 against everyone, 19–2 overall.
| Franchise | Division | Record | Week 8 all-play | All-play | Points for |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Dunn | leader | 19–2 | 11–0 | 78–10 | 2,149.2 |
| Eric Martel | leader | 16–5 | 10–1 | 66–22 | 1,926.1 |
| Shawn Blake | leader | 11–10 | 5–6 | 53–35 | 1,824.3 |
| Brian Cutting | 12–9 | 4–7 | 52–36 | 1,803.8 | |
| Chris Klingenberg | 13–8 | 9–2 | 51–37 | 1,674.4 | |
| Keith Creelman | leader | 10–11 | 2–9 | 41–47 | 1,695.4 |
| Derrick Whitman | 11–10 | 0–11 | 49–39 | 1,729.7 | |
| Eric Mannila | 11–10 | 8–3 | 42–46 | 1,658.6 | |
| Ryan Bousquet | 8–13 | 6–5 | 30–58 | 1,545.6 | |
| Matt Gerardi | 4–17 | 3–8 | 23–65 | 1,484.2 | |
| Brian Cross | 5–16 | 1–10 | 22–66 | 1,519.2 | |
| Josh Martel | 6–15 | 7–4 | 21–67 | 1,472.3 |
In the same order as the league standings page: the current playoff field first (division leaders take the top two places), then everyone else; every place goes by all-play percentage, then overall record, then points for, then head-to-head.
| Week 8 matchup | Our favorite | Final | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Cutting vs Brian Cross | Brian Cutting (83%) | 203.9–181.8 | yes |
| Eric Martel vs Brian Cross | Eric Martel (82%) | 243.5–181.8 | yes |
| Bear Dunn vs Chris Klingenberg | Bear Dunn (78%) | 307.6–229.2 | yes |
| Keith Creelman vs Josh Martel | Keith Creelman (78%) | 184.0–218.0 | no |
| Bear Dunn vs Eric Mannila | Bear Dunn (77%) | 307.6–218.1 | yes |
| Keith Creelman vs Ryan Bousquet | Keith Creelman (66%) | 184.0–214.3 | no |
| Ryan Bousquet vs Josh Martel | Ryan Bousquet (64%) | 214.3–218.0 | no |
| Derrick Whitman vs Matt Gerardi | Derrick Whitman (52%) | 166.2–186.6 | no |
| Shawn Blake vs Matt Gerardi | Shawn Blake (52%) | 210.7–186.6 | yes |
| Brian Cutting vs Eric Martel | Brian Cutting (51%) | 203.9–243.5 | no |
| Shawn Blake vs Derrick Whitman | Shawn Blake (50%) | 210.7–166.2 | yes |
| Eric Mannila vs Chris Klingenberg | Eric Mannila (50%) | 218.1–229.2 | no |
Last week’s published preview, graded against the final scores: favorites won 6 of 12.
7 Playoff Picture — updated after Week 8
Stuart
Bear Dunn leads the forecast at 100.0% to make the playoffs.
| Franchise | Playoffs | First-round bye | Wins division | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Dunn | 100.0% | 99.9% | 99.9% | 39.2% |
| Eric Martel | 99.6% | 78.1% | 85.0% | 18.9% |
| Brian Cutting | 95.7% | 13.2% | 15.0% | 23.5% |
| Shawn Blake | 89.5% | 8.2% | 80.8% | 9.1% |
| Keith Creelman | 77.4% | 0.1% | 76.8% | 3.4% |
| Chris Klingenberg | 68.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 3.5% |
| Derrick Whitman | 34.5% | 0.3% | 19.1% | 1.3% |
| Ryan Bousquet | 21.4% | 0.0% | 21.2% | 0.4% |
| Eric Mannila | 11.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| Josh Martel | 1.9% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Gerardi | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brian Cross | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Probabilities updated after Week 8 (Wed Nov 4, 10:02 AM ET), 10,000 simulated seasons. One team wins each division in every simulated season; division odds and the league’s title odds are rounded so each group still adds up to the whole.
8 Heat Check — the season and the last three weeks
| Team Reading | All-Play Wks 6–8 (season) | Scoring rank Wks 1–5 → Wks 6–8 |
|---|---|---|
| Bear Dunn Dominant | 33–0 (78–10) | 1st → 1st |
| Eric Martel Dominant | 29–4 (66–22) | 3rd → 2nd |
| Chris Klingenberg Rising | 22–11 (51–37) | 8th → 4th |
| Brian Cutting Holding | 21–12 (52–36) | 4th → 3rd |
| Eric Mannila Holding | 19–14 (42–46) | 7th → 6th |
| Derrick Whitman Holding | 17–16 (49–39) | 6th → 5th |
| Shawn Blake Cooling | 13–20 (53–35) | 2nd → 7th |
| Ryan Bousquet Holding | 10–23 (30–58) | 10th → 9th |
| Josh Martel Holding | 10–23 (21–67) | 12th → 10th |
| Keith Creelman Holding | 9–24 (41–47) | 5th → 8th |
| Brian Cross Holding | 8–25 (22–66) | 9th → 12th |
| Matt Gerardi Holding | 7–26 (23–65) | 11th → 11th |
Sorted by All-Play over Weeks 6–8; the full-season All-Play record is in parentheses. Reading, applied in order: Dominant = at least 28 of every 33 all-play games in that stretch; Sinking = 5 of every 33 or fewer; Rising / Cooling = scoring rank moved four or more places; otherwise Holding.
| Team | Left on bench / wk | Losses the best lineup would have won | Wins vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Cutting | 42.0 | 5 of 9 | −0.5 |
| Eric Martel | 34.3 | 3 of 5 | +0.6 |
| Chris Klingenberg | 31.9 | 2 of 8 | +0.5 |
| Derrick Whitman | 28.6 | 5 of 10 | −1.1 |
| Keith Creelman | 28.2 | 5 of 11 | −0.1 |
| Eric Mannila | 27.6 | 5 of 10 | +1.7 |
| Matt Gerardi | 26.0 | 6 of 17 | −1.1 |
| Josh Martel | 23.7 | 4 of 15 | +1.5 |
| Ryan Bousquet | 22.9 | 4 of 13 | +1.0 |
| Bear Dunn | 22.9 | 2 of 2 | −0.1 |
| Shawn Blake | 22.9 | 5 of 10 | −2.0 |
| Brian Cross | 19.6 | 4 of 16 | −0.5 |
Bench points = the best possible lineup from the same roster, known only after the games, minus the lineup started. Wins vs expected = head-to-head wins minus the wins each week’s all-play rate would give.
EDITOR REVIEW — Story leads for the editor. They only point at rows above: they are not findings, not for publication, and the job does not write the stories. Check each one, decide whether there is a story, then remove this box.
- Look at Bear Dunn: All-Play over the last three weeks (Heat Check, first table).
- Look at Chris Klingenberg: scoring-rank change between the two windows (Heat Check, first table).
- Look at Shawn Blake: scoring-rank change between the two windows (Heat Check, first table).
- Look at Brian Cutting: bench points and losses the best lineup would have won (Heat Check, second table).
- Look at Shawn Blake: wins vs expected (Heat Check, second table).
- Look at Matt Gerardi, Brian Cross: the lowest win band (Survival Line).
9 The Survival Line — what a Week 8 position has meant
| Team | Category, playoffs | Made it from the same All-Play rank, 2017–2025 | Made it with the same win total, 2021–2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Dunn | Contender 100.0% | 19/20 | 6/6 |
| Eric Martel | Contender 99.6% | 19/20 | 6/6 |
| Brian Cutting | Contender 95.7% | 15/16 | 8/12 |
| Shawn Blake | In the field 89.5% | 15/16 | 8/12 |
| Keith Creelman | In the field 77.4% | 7/19 | 8/12 |
| Chris Klingenberg | In the field 68.5% | 9/18 | 12/15 |
| Derrick Whitman | In the race 34.5% | 9/18 | 8/12 |
| Ryan Bousquet | Needs a run 21.4% | 1/17 | 4/20 |
| Eric Mannila | Needs a run 11.5% | 7/19 | 8/12 |
| Josh Martel | Life support 1.9% | 3/18 | 4/20 |
| Matt Gerardi | Life support 0.1% | 1/17 | 0/7 |
| Brian Cross | Life support 0.0% | 3/18 | 0/7 |
“Made it”: teams in the same position after Week 8 of a past season who went on to make the playoffs, out of all such teams. All-Play rank is grouped in pairs (tied teams share the higher rank); win totals are grouped in five bands, among seasons with the same number of games so far. Categories come from this week’s playoff odds: Contender 90% or better, In the field 60–90, In the race 25–60, Needs a run 8–25, Life support under 8.
10 Coffee Shop Talk — Kenny Mayne reads the chat
Rich
Before we close, the chat. Owners posted 70 times between Thu Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET and Wed Nov 4, 10:00 AM ET. Kenny.
EDITOR REVIEW — Kenny Mayne’s lines are an editor’s job: choose from the verbatim candidates and follow the owner dossier. 1 message(s) ruled out by an editor or touching family, health or similar were withheld and must not be used. 45 candidate line(s) are listed, verbatim and linked, in the local review copy only (raw chat stays off the public repo).
| Owner | Posts |
|---|---|
| Keith Creelman | 15 |
| Josh Martel | 13 |
| Brian Cutting | 10 |
| Shawn Blake | 10 |
| Ryan Bousquet | 9 |
| Eric Martel | 8 |
| Bear Dunn | 3 |
| Brian Cross | 2 |
| Chris Klingenberg | 0 |
| Derrick Whitman | 0 |
| Eric Mannila | 0 |
| Matt Gerardi | 0 |
Owner posts in the archived league Discord channels in that window; bot posts excluded.
11 Elias changes
EDITOR REVIEW — Elias has not posted official Week 8 changes yet. The Thursday and Friday runs re-check and will update this draft.
How this was built — 3 notes
Sources. MFL scores, standings, schedules, transactions and Elias posts; the league’s D1 copies, checked against MFL; MFL projections as saved before each kickoff; nflverse expected points; the archived league Discord.
Status. Automated draft (ups_center_auto.py), generated Wed Nov 4, 10:00 AM ET. Not published.
Editor review. 5 item(s) are marked EDITOR REVIEW in this draft and must be resolved before publication.